Graph 2, attached, provides the most up-to-date view of monthly changes in the annualised growth rate as well as regularising over three and six months. This provides a more reliable representation of market trends than monthly snapshots.
The figures reveal that while the UK continues to see positive growth, the rate of growth continues to slow. The three month rolling average data shows a current annualised growth rate of 2.28% compared to 4.29% last month. The six month rolling average data shows 5.94% annualised growth rate in January, down from 7.79% in December and a high of 11.93% in October 2009.
Stuart Law, Chief Executive of Assetz, comments:
“The latest Assetz House Price Watch shows that the monthly rate of house price growth slowed over Christmas but is now rising again. However, the six month average is a more reliable indication of trends and suggests that while growth continues, it has slowed from its historic high of almost 12 per cent in October to a more sustainable level.
“I would expect the annual rise in February to be around 5%, up on January’s figure of 4.7% and predict overall modest growth of 5% by the end of the year. Rightmove, a leading indicator of asking prices, witnessed monthly house price growth of 3.2% in February as sellers increased asking prices due to the reduced levels of stock on the market. This rate of growth - which translates as 46% annualised growth – is wholly unsustainable. However, as a result of increased asking prices, we would expect an increase in the agreed price that appears in the Nationwide and Halifax indices next month.”
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